Bankable PV Models ?

  • MikeBarker
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10 Jun 2014 04:46 #2380 by MikeBarker
Bankable PV Models ? was created by MikeBarker
NREL claim that their SAM Model outputs are not "Bank Quality"

What other systems are available that produce bank quality outputs. The World Bank started an initiative some years ago to focus on bankable models - has this gone any further ? ( Quality Program for Photovoltaics (QuaP-PV) )

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  • pgilman
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10 Jun 2014 17:51 #2381 by pgilman
Replied by pgilman on topic Bankable PV Models ?
Dear Mike,
How would you define a "bankable model?"
SAM and other similar computer models help with predictions that you have to make about a system's performance and a project's cash flow during the pre-feasibility stage of developing a project. I think it would be reasonable to use a model like SAM for that purpose.
Many factors that a bank or other investor would consider when considering whether to finance a project are outside the scope of a computer model, so the model results have to be part of a package of information describing the project.
The quality of the model results depend on the quality of the assumptions that are the model inputs. In SAM, the weather data, along with the financial, cost, and design assumptions are all things that you have control over and to which the model results are very sensitive.
SAM's performance models are designed to provide a reasonable estimate of a system's total annual electrical production. That estimate is suitable for use in an basic annual cash flow model (like the ones in SAM) to estimate a project's financial viability. Again, this level of detail is appropriate for the early stages of a project's development, when you are evaluating different options, and have a lot of questions to answer before you can narrow the options down. For example, you can use a model like SAM to narrow down technology options -- perhaps you are a developer and choosing between PV, CSP, and wind for a particular site. Or, perhaps you know that the cost of one of the system components in a potential photovoltaic system is particularly volatile, and want to understand how sensitive the project's internal rate of return would be to that component's cost.
Best regards,

Paul.

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