Hi Michael,
You might want to refer to the PVWatts technical reference manual to see the equations it uses. It is available for download under "PVWatts" on the Performance Documentation page of this website:
https://sam.nrel.gov/performance
As you know, PVWatts and the other performance models in SAM perform hour-by-hour calculations (or subhourly calculations), so your monthly calculation will be an approximation, and you should expect some difference between monthly totals of SAM results and your estimates.
The basic algorithm for PVWatts for each time step looks like this:
1. Calculate the incident irradiance (W/m2) for the hour (see reference manual for details)
2. Calculate irradiance transmitted (W/m2) to cell to account for the effect of the module cover on irradiance (see manual)
2. Calculate the array's output: Pdc_gross = Pdc_nameplate (W) * I_transmitted (W/m2) / 1000 (W/m2)
3. Adjust gross array output to account for the effect of cell temperature (see manual)
4. Apply losses: Pdc_net (W) = Pdc_gross (W) * ( 1 - dc_loss (%) / 100%) )
5. Calculate inverter efficiency, eta_inverter (see manual)
6. Calculate inverter output: Pac (W) = Pdc_net (W) * eta_inverter
7. Limit inverter output to minimum of zero and maximum of inverter rated AC power (Pac_nameplate = Pdc_nameplate / dc_to_ac_ratio)
Best regards,
Paul.